CinemaBravo

Can the Philippines and China peacefully settle territorial disputes in the SCS/WPS?
By Rommel C. Banlaoi, PhD
(Shared during the Pandesal Forum held on April 14, 2025, at the 86-year-old Kamuning Bakery Café in Quezon City)

Answering this question requires citing the work of my good friend, M. Taylor Fravel, an American political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In his study based on his doctoral dissertation, Fravel underscores that China has been involved in at least 23 difficult territorial disputes since 1949. At present, only six of these territorial disputes persist. These are the Taiwan issue, the border dispute with India, the border conflict with Bhutan, and the three island group disputes in the Paracels, the Spratlys, and the Scarborough Shoal.

Fravel discovered that over the past sixty years, China was more likely to compromise in these conflicts with neighbors and less likely to use force than many Western scholars have feared. According to him, China’s territorial disputes with neighbors have been effectively resolved. These include the peaceful settlement of disputes with North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, and Laos, as well as land border conflicts with Vietnam, including the White Dragon Tail Island dispute in the Gulf of Tonkin.

China also settled territorial disputes over Hong Kong (with Great Britain) and Macao (with Portugal) not through coercion, aggression, or military force, but by patiently negotiating for the return of these Chinese territories. China waited 156 years to get back Hong Kong from Great Britain, and 442 years to regain Macau from Portugal. China has a bag full of patience to peacefully settle territorial disputes.

China has taught the world that in the peaceful settlement of territorial disputes, patience is the main requirement. Fravel observed that China’s resolution of other disputes involved difficult compromise agreements in which China received only a minuscule part of the contested territory. In major cases, China offered generous compromises—giving more than 50 percent of the disputed land in favor of its neighbors.

These are scientific findings from an American—not a Chinese—scholar. By citing an American source who is well respected and accepted by the international community of experts and scientists, it is therefore very unfair to be labeled as pro-China for highlighting China’s exemplary practices in the peaceful settlement of territorial disputes with neighbors.

In the Philippines, it is currently popular to be anti-China because of the WPS issue. But as Albert Einstein once said, “what is popular is not always right.” It is counterproductive to use labels like “anti-China” or “pro-US” in the context of the SCS/WPS disputes. It is more pro-Filipino to believe that sustaining friendship and strengthening peaceful co-existence with both the US and China are essential for the advancement of Filipino national interests.